Have you ever heard of an S curve? It is a graph used in business to track a project or a product from start up through development often with a sharp acceleration of growth followed by the eventual maturity or plateau where growth slows. This graph is plotted over time and often resembles a stretched out letter S.
I wonder if we can apply this principal to revival over time. In Acts, we read of the small group of 11 apostles, followed by a still small group of 120 on Pentecost, followed by the explosive growth of 3000 saved in one day. I have written before how most of the exciting events in Acts happened over a relatively short time frame of only a few years. A slow start followed by rapid growth in numbers and in outreach followed by a leveling off of activity and a slowing of growth and a maturity plateau. From Pentecost to Paul on death row is only 33 years.
The S curve follows the natural process of human endeavor in any movement or project. By the S curve we can observe trends over time. We can measure the costs and the results over time. We can follow any effort over time to see how it went. We generally in revival do not do this while revival is happening.
The Prescott church started out small when the Mitchells arrived. There was a time of explosive and rapid growth. And it has plateaued at it's current size for several years now. Church planting started out slow, then it gained momentum, until there were fewer men to send out, and it has leveled off at its current level of involvement for several years now. Prescott alone did not plant over 4000 churches.
The exciting times in S curve tracking are the early times, when innovation is fresh and results are staggering. Some men only thrive when it is exciting. Fewer men can handle the plateau of maturity. Paul showed us what a man can do when he is forced to slow down.
What happens once the S curve reaches its natural end? For some, the project is over. For some, key people are no longer there. For some, they chafe at the slow rate of growth or lack of innovation.
The I Phone used to be exciting. New features, new style, cutting edge tech. Now, it's is as good as it can ever get.
Smaller churches reach the maturity point sooner than big churches. Their S curve does not reach the heights of their big brethren, but it follows the same trend. It is easier for a smaller church to be mature than for a big church to accept that plateau. The big question is, will we survive to another generation?